Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Missile offense

Robert Gates wants "definitive proof" of Iran's missile capabilities. How refreshing!

It's also pretty nonsensical.

If you think through it, it's pretty obvious that any supposed nuclear threat from Iran has nothing to do with traditional war between nations. If Iran launched nuclear war, goodbye Iran. Even Ahmadinejad, even the looniest mullahs don't want to meet the Prophet that fast.

The threat of Iranian proliferation is that a nuclear weapon might leak out to a non-state actor, e.g. al Qaeda. Of course, that worry already exists in Pakistan, and we luv them. Y'know, an obviously stable military democracy. (Is there a word for exponential oxymoron?)

The real thing that Gates is doing is making a concession to Russia. Even that is mostly window dressing, since American anti-missile technology is not good enough to be a real threat to Russia.

Still, it's rational for Putin to be concerned about it. He has met Duhbya, so he knows the guy is not the sharpest tool in the shed. More to the point, Duhbya is prone to believing his own bullshit, and he might overplay his hand regarding Russia if he believes that classic Republican bullshit about missile defense.

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