Shut up and watch, wingnuts

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Age of reason

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The Democrats' problem is that reason only works with a narrow demographic these days. We didn't always have a culture of bullshit, but we do now. Republicans believe they're entitled to their own facts, whatever they make up on the spot to avoid having to deal with actual reality. The radical right-wing media feeds this irrational belief constantly. That's its purpose - keeping the ignoramuses fooled, with their willing, even eager, participation.

I'm running for office, for Mitt's sake

Mitt's core value: whatever's good for Mitt. The business world trained him for that. He's used to lying for money.

Choosing your opponent

So the DNC is attacking Sarah Palin for the bullshit she has posted on Facebook:

A few months back, Palin took to Facebook to declare that health reform would create "death panels," and drive private insurers out of business -- and nonpartisan fact-check sites and the independent Congressional Budget Office debunked those lies.

But that hasn't stopped Sarah Palin. She's back with a new Facebook note claiming that reform will raise costs on families and drive up deficits. Unfortunately for her, even the conservative "Tax Foundation" says those claims are false.

So we're calling out Sarah Palin, and taking to Facebook to debunk her lies on the very same pages she's using to spread them.

Doesn't attacking Palin make her stronger with her base? Couldn't that help her win the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Yes, Grasshopper.

Split the difference between lies and arguments

The utter failure of the America press to write the truth is on display here. Republican bullshit gets pride of place in the first three paragraphs, ending with:

The [Seniors’ Health Care Bill of Rights] includes protecting Medicare from major cuts, preserving the doctor-patient relationship, banning any rationing of care or interference in end-of-life decisions, guaranteeing that seniors can keep their current coverage, and protecting current veterans’ health care programs.

The rest of the story is limited to Medicare cuts, the sole real issue, leaving five lies unrebutted.

One silver lining: The DNC is finally attacking what should already be the non-existent credibility of the entire Republican Party:

“It should be no surprise that the Republican Party - which whipped many Americans into a frenzy at town hall meetings on health care this month by spreading one lie about reform after another - has now taken to scaring seniors who have nothing to fear and much to gain from reform,’’ Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.

Always ready to escalate

The DNC asked people to call the RNC about health care. The RNC for its part redirected calls to the DNC to prove that planned disruption of forums is not their only weapon - they also have planned disruption of the DNC.

Given the Republicans' past illegal phone bombing of Democratic GOTV operations in New Hampshire, for which a couple of operatives were convicted, the RNC might want to rethink this. It's probably illegal.

But the Republicans don't do rethinking. They just go another notch.

Bottom line: Republicans have no interest in loyal opposition. Opposition is all they care about.

Laid the groundwork

Howard Dean did yeoman's work to put the Democratic Party in a position to run the table in 2008, and it's well worth remembering that the lily-livered Washington Democrats didn't want him to be DNC chair.

The insurgent activists in the grassroots carried the day. No one should ever think that all procedural votes are piddling little things that don't matter. This one was big.

Doesn't poll as important

... but it's the foundation of American civil society. Like Glenn Greenwald, I've noticed the absence of Democratic promises to restore the Constitution and the rule of law to American government. And I've missed them.

Not on C-SPAN early enough

Network coverage is increasingly bullshit-ridden. They'd rather let raving lunatics like Pat Buchanan strain his voice as if what he says has any value. And they miss things like this:

He told his story of losing the Indiana factory job he'd held for 30 years and then said America needed a president who paid more attention to "Barney Smith" not "Smith Barney."

I didn't tune to C-SPAN soon enough to hear Barney Smith, but obviously somebody's TV cameras were rolling:

Four more months!

Amid all the lockstep, on-message Republican attempts to paint Hillary's endorsement of Obama as, what?, a lie, don't miss this:

Pennsylvania Sen. Robert Casey Jr. at one point feigned shock at the idea that the Republican Party was asking for four more years in the White House, promising the party of President Bush and McCain "not four more years, but four more months."

I'm delighted that Rudy Giuliani will deliver a keynote at the RNC. Let the Republicans showcase his unpopularity all they want.

There's also something funny about the two stories I've linked to. One of them is labelled "GOP reaction," yet the other is also filled with Republican spin. Ah, the GOP, so much bullshit that it didn't all fit into a single story!

Update: If you like this item, you might like an oldie from May 1.

Obama '16

Michelle.

We could not possibly get that lucky.

Updated with links 8/26.

Surprise, surprise, surprise

Ed Henry blithers about the now disappointed expectation that McCain would lie low during the DNC. If he read me, he'd have a better idea that this might happen.

Seriously, why is it that professional political journalists have so little insight into the subject they cover? What are they doing all those hours I'm doing my real job, when they could be learning interesting facts? Are they just sitting in the hotel bar exchanging conventional wisdom with their colleagues?

Ed, by the way, if you'll deign to read here, you might notice in your own report that McCain is no longer the face of his own attacks. This is an important fact for your future analyses. Just a hint.

Denver and St. Paul

The conventions are coming. Violating my usual rule against speculation when a week or two of waiting would reveal all, here's what I expect.

The Democrats go first, apparently because they don't hold the White House and therefore don't have home court advantage. The media will tell us how much of a polling bounce Obama should get from his week of "overwhelmingly postive [sic] coverage." They'll conveniently forget the recent events of Obama's overseas trip, when the McCain press operation released attack after attack.

Tucky Bounds and his conscienceless corps of spinners will be at their blast faxes again. They know that they can count on a compliant media to type them up in the name of faux balance without ever noticing the larger story. That's what happened when Obama travelled, and the media kept posing naive questions about why the trip didn't do him more good. The answer was staring them in the face on their own web sites, but it would have been impolite to their old pal McCain to notice.

The media won't notice that they're being used again. They never notice. They're too busy sniffing for middle school level scandal and gossip.

What could the Obama campaign do about this?

First, immunize. McCain is going to attack the stadium speech again, for example. Parry and counterattack. Prep an ad that shows previous stadium speeches. Richard Nixon spoke before a Billy Graham Crusade in Neyland Stadium when it only held 95,000. Say, "Politicians of all stripes who can fill them have spoken before stadium crowds for many years. It's what they have to say, not where they say it, that's important." Repeat for any wedge you can foresee the Republicans using.

Second, attack. Have surrogates prepped and ready. The distant surrogates should attack strongly and repeatedly. McCain's loopiness is a legitimate issue. Close surrogates - the ones that you might have to take responsibility for - should have talking points ready. Democrats are awful at sticking to a script (Joe Biden); ask Ted Kennedy (if he's well enough) or Al Gore to tell them the vital importance of sticking to your message and not stretching a bridge too far. Then, dammit, don't back down.

Third, prepare your own blast faxes for the Republicans' week in St. Paul. Put them on the defensive for a change. Be sure you give the lazy media an irresistible catch phrase to tag each story, like "McCain knows the drill."

For the past thirty years, though, Democrats have been slow learners about Republican politics. I don't see any reason to think that's suddenly changed.

Look for McCain to lead the polls by Labor Day.

Rip tides of narrative and reality

The national press is rightly impressed with Obama's fundraising, but focusing on that rare apparent advantage obscures the reality that bleeds through lower in the story:

Republican officials point out that, when the RNC totals are combined with the $21 million in cash that McCain held at the end of July, they actually have slightly more money available for the White House contest than do Democrats. (Combined figures show Republicans with $96 million and Democrats with $94.3)

So, parity. Forget the Republican underdog story. It's bullshit.

Combine this parity with unmeasured but almost certain Republican advantages in 527s, and the ocean of slime coming from the right will get deeper and deeper before the tide ebbs off the beach and leaves us.

We'll see if there's a strong enough rip current to drown Obama. I hope he's strong enough to swim around it.

Chaos or conscience

Always fun to scoop CNN, which today posts the membership of the DNC Credentials Committee. Though the exact membership has changed a little over the intervening three months, possibly as a result of rearrangement of committee powers, I had this story nearly three months ago.

The composition of the panel still favors Hillary. Of thirty members, 12 are committed to her and only 8 to Obama. One of Obama's is from Florida.

Will they vote to win or vote for principal?

If loving you is wrong

I'm not happy to be proven wrong except in one situation - when my fear and cynicism are disappointed. I have a bit more hope now for the probity of the DNC Credentials Committee (not the Rules Committee, unless the DNC web site is out of date).

Jim Roosevelt is saying all the right things in a public way that is not easy to back down from. And I say thank you and hooray. Oh, and I'm sorry, too, for my earlier skepticism.

Florida and Michigan

What will the DNC do about Florida and Michigan? They ran their unauthorized primaries, and Hillary won both in a walkover, while Obama stayed away, perhaps naively.

A revote has been mentioned in Florida, and that might be the right approach, though the Clinton camp would never agree to it willingly.

If the nomination contest gets to Denver unresolved, I would expect a floor fight to determine how to seat these delegations. If that happens, I think Clinton wins, but democracy and the Democratic Party lose.

The real question is who is on the Credentials Committee. The chairs are Alexis Herman, James Roosevelt Jr., and Eliseo Roques-Arroyo. Herman was Bill Clinton's secretary of labor, and I've never heard of Roques-Arroyo before, but a little googling shows that he worked in the Clinton White House. Buzzflash, too.

That leaves Jim Roosevelt, who also worked in the Clinton Administration, and I'm not optimistic that his rulings will reflect anything but his desired outcome. I only have two experiences with him, but they were both warnings.

The Massachusetts Democratic Party Convention had passed a rules change about the number of delegates allowed each town, and the language wasn't completely clear, so Roosevelt had to make a ruling. Fair enough. The problem was that his ruling was impossible to reconcile with the passed language.

The second case involved a challenge from the floor of another state convention to a ruling of the chair, Phil Johnston, about a voice vote that was clearly not fairly callable. Roosevelt backed Johnston's call, which just happened to be what the party apparatus wanted.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama had better win 2208 delegates instead of just 2025 if he wants to be the nominee. I expect the sub rosa Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated.

Update: Close to 500 people have seen this page, yet no one has left a comment!

Update (3/21/08): Could have a happy ending yet!