Bridge-burning

I've been trying to figure out what would motivate Paul Loscocco to sign on as Tim Cahill's running mate, but that's too big a bite. I was surprised when he bowed out of the Massachusetts House in 2008; how am I going to figure out this much bigger question off the top of my head!

First thing, Paul (yes, I know him) has burned his bridges to the Republican Party. They won't take him back. On the other hand, after his switch to support for gay marriage (effectively, anyway, though all he actually did was to help keep it from danger of being legislatively overturned), he wasn't going to be a national Republican - ever. (I've seen rumors that his split from Mitt Romney to John McCain meant he had a Cabinet position lined up, but even considering that McCain picked Sarah Palin, that's nonsense.)

Of course, in Massachusetts, there's hardly any Republican Party to leave - except for the ambitious refugees who have taken shelter in the conservative wing of the Democratic Party here. Maybe Paul thought he had nothing much to lose, other than his chains to the extremes of the national party.

Tim Cahill was one of those conservative Democrats before he jumped ship. I didn't hold his ideology against him, but even when he was a Dem, I never trusted him. What he does have that Loscocco may have found attractive is a statewide network of supporters. I just don't see that network as portable to Paul even should this ticket beat the extreme odds and squeak by in a three- or four-way race.

Do Cahill and Loscocco actually think they can win? It's hard to see how they can compete with Charlie Baker and Deval Patrick organizationally or financially, and neither Cahill nor Loscocco has the overwhelming charisma that would make this more credible.

Still, to win an election this way requires a leap of faith, rather than dues-paying and an attempt at inevitability. Their chances are slim to none. Baker has to stumble really badly for Cahill to get to second place. Patrick has already stumbled in office, though his notices are much worse than his actual performance in trying times.

Maybe this seemingly quixotic candidacy is simply Paul's up-or-out test. If he wins, he's a broker of the center. If he loses, he can get on with making enough money to send his kids to college (which was how I explained his getting out in 2008), and he still might be viewed as an independent appointee to boards and commissions.

Here's a very sketchy scenario in which they could win:

• Christy Mihos damages Charlie Baker in the Republican primary and - if Charlie, despite his intelligence and accomplishments, is as bad a campaigner as he might be - maybe even beats him.
  
• Unemployment stays bad, bad, bad, and Deval is not actually at his nadir now. (I've been hoping for better news to start Deval's recovery.)
• Cahill keeps his self-esteem from becoming too visible and off-putting.

They still need an issue to hammer at in order to get people to take a chance on them. The current popular dissatisfaction is not enough.

Run it like our favorite business

Click image to see full Dan Wasserman/Boston Globe cartoon.

Counter-intuitive

Something I heard last night from a friend who happens to be my state rep: The Boston Herald drives what happens on Beacon Hill, especially in the House. I have to admit that I was shocked by this. I almost never read the Herald. Hardly anyone except hardcore wingnuts out here in the 'burbs reads the Herald. It's the paper for people who find the Globe too hard to read.

Conservative media outlets like the Herald relish propaganda. They don't see their role as objective. They see it as a counterbalance - against outlets like the Globe that do actually provide op-ed balance to their political ideology. By contrast, today the Herald has two conservative editorials (no surprise), three conservative op-eds, and Howie Carr for a clean sweep.

Maybe that's not representative. It looks as though I'll have to add the Herald to my news stack for a while to gather more data.

One of the op-eds comes from my bête noire Eric Fehrnstrom (professional Romney shill). He analyzes the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial race with the goal of electing Republican Charlie Baker. Former Democrat Tim Cahill, says Fehrnstrom, stands in the way, and the GOP needs to co-opt him.

Get this, Fehrnstrom's analysis is right (heh) on target. Another three-way race greatly benefits Deval Patrick.

Republican policy wonk

No, not Newt Gingrich. Newt's strength is marketing the same old right-wing nostrums as if they might be something new. He's not going to move off of tax cuts as the be-all and end-all of the conservative movement. He's just going to dress that particular limp dick in edible underwear.

Charlie Baker (R-Swampscott) is the policy wonk of the hour, and he's going to get a lot less anonymous now that he has announced for governor of Massachusetts. There are a lot of idiots in the Republican Party (and in politics in general). He's not one of them.

I haven't talked to Charlie in a full thirty years - and if memory serves, we were probably talking about intramural volleyball. I didn't agree with his politics then and I don't now, but it's not stupid.

So, who loses from Baker jumping into the governor's race? Not Deval Patrick. He was already in trouble, and this doesn't make it worse.

The big loser is Tim Cahill. His political career is over. He split from the Democratic Party, aiming for a coalition of conservative Dems, independents, and centrist Republicans that are Baker's natural constituency. Cahill's best option now is to offer Baker his statewide network in exchange for ... what? I don't know. In any case, Cahill's network of conservative Democrats (by Massachusetts standards) might go independent, but GOP is an ideological bridge too far.

Christy Mihos loses, too. He still has money, so he can still run, but the GOP apparatus, such as it is, will rally behind Baker, since his pedigree is unassailable. If Mihos really has a jones to run again, he may be back in the independent column.

Bumper crop

Because I don't have time or energy to comment (today) on the Charlie Baker announcement, a cartoon...

Click image for full Bruce Beattie/Daytona Beach News-Journal cartoon.