Lying to you

I surely can't be the first person to notice this. (Don't call me Shirley. RIP.)

Paul Steinhauser of CNN completely misrepresented a McClatchy-Marist poll.

The actual poll asked whether voters think Republicans ought to compromise with Democrats to get things done:

The Republicans have control of the House of Representatives. Which statement comes closer to your view about what you think should happen:

• The Republicans should compromise with the Democrats and President Obama to get things done
• The Republicans should stand firm on their positions even if it means things don't get done

Steinhauser dishonestly portrays the results as showing that the voters want Democrats and Republicans to work together.

One day before a White House meeting between President Barack Obama and top congressional leaders from both political parties, a new poll suggests most Americans want Democrats and Republicans to compromise.

The actual poll is about what Republicans should do. Steinhauser spins it into a bullshit balance, portraying the voters as saying something they didn't say.

Some liberal media! In my newsroom, this would be a firing offense. If I only had a newsroom.

Why does it matter if the media lies about polls? Those lies can actually push people toward different positions. That's why candidates and parties pimp their biased partisan polls during election season.

Pick the lowest

Three beauty polls on Barack Obama. CNN picks the lowest for their headline.

Missing the story

CNN reports that, ho hum, the Sarah Palin resignation circus left 70% of voters with the same opinion of her:

"Many Americans have deeply-held opinions about Palin as a result of the national campaign in 2008," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Well, duh. Of course this is true. She's the most over-exposed media personality this side of the Michael Jackson funeral circus. (I guess there was a two-for-one special in burials this week.)

But Holland misses the point of his own poll. After ten months of intense coverage, Sarah being Sarah and trying incoherently and vacuously to explain her flight from office as something noble and self-sacrificing led 30% of voters to reconsider their opinions.

A poll that focused on that third of the electorate would have been much more interesting. Did they buy her pity party or not? Alas, CNN didn't ask and can't tell, although the totals suggest they didn't.

(As a matter of craven political self-interest, I'd also like to understand the 17% of so-called Democrats who would support Palin. Who the hell are they?)

Dead cat bounce

... is my preferred phrase for Duhbya's improved popularity among his dead-enders. Notice: Even they needed him to disappear off their TV screens before they could again claim to like him scurvy ass.

Waaay worse than Clinton fatigue

Here's your hat, what's your hurry, doesn't begin to cover America's wish that it could call the bouncers over to the bar and have Duhbya tossed out of Martini's into the snow. How wonderful our lives would be if he'd never been born! Well, maybe not, but still, don't let the door whack you in the ass.

Twenty-five days till Inauguration Day.

Dreams of our fathers

Seventy percent of white Americans did not dream of this new day. Seventy percent of white Americans do not share Martin Luther King's dream. Seventy percent of white Americans mystify me.

I guess they don't want to admit what an unlikely and unexpected achievement Barack Obama's election is. Then they'd have to admit the history of racism that we are trying to throw off. That's the more flattering explanation, anyway.

You can see them in big media comments sections everywhere propounding epochally stupid thoughts about how Obama isn't really black. He's half-white, you see. One drop rule? Never heard of it. Yet there they are in racist denial.

Maybe in a few years the 28% of white Americans that I belong to will grow as reasonable people in the 70% realize how stupid their answer to this question was.

Sarah word salad strikes again

Sarah Palin was a broadcast journalism major? No wonder it took nearly as many colleges for her to get her degree as John McCain has houses.

"Don't let me miss the open door. Show me where the open door is and even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll just plow right on through that and maybe prematurely plow through it, but don't let me miss an open door. And if there is an open door in '12 or four years later, and if it is something that is going to be good for my family, for my state, for my nation, an opportunity for me, then I'll plow through that door," Palin said in an interview with Fox News Monday.

The gleeful misanthrope in me hopes that the Republicans nominate her in 2012. Then I remember "The Butterfly Effect", and my responsible side shudders. Don't step off the path!

Even Rush Limbaugh knows it's over

In fact, even John McCain and Sarah Palin know that they have two chances, slim and none. Meanwhile, Palin is scaring voters away. Of course, Rush would never ask her about that.

Confession

Normally, I hate stories like this. They're trying to poll what reality is. They purport to tell us what we should be able to see and judge ourselves. The non-rational truth is that many people are influenced by social consensus to believe things they didn't actually conclude themselves. (See Cialdini, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion.) In evolutionary terms, this is adaptive for social species (humans, ants, etc.), but I digress.

In politics, the usual rule is that perception is reality, but I obstinately resist the claim that anything besides reality is actually reality. Yeah, I'm old fashioned that way. My blog-friend Winston Smith at Philosoraptor (we've exchanged links, but it doesn't mean we're married) may be relieved to hear that I believe this, despite my occasional hedged defense of the phrase 'socially constructed'.

Still, the CNN polling story does show at least that people are seeing through the bullshit that we call our mass media. But, sure, I agree that Obama's more compassionate, better at the economy, smarter, a better leader, etc., so of course I like it.

Everybody rationalizes. Why shouldn't I?

Update: Ditto this story about the debate.

Reasons to be cheerful

"New polls show Obama breaking away in key states" --CNN

FiveThirtyEight.com shows Obama with 336 electoral votes after today's polls and projects Obama winning in 85% of scenarios. A different type of projection gives Obama 51% of the eventual vote, and that's a hard number to beat for McCain.

Update (10/2): Essentially a repeat of the CNN story above, with a little commentary added. Bill Schneider chalks Florida up to storm surge from recent candidate visits. He seems to think this couldn't possibly be a trend away from his pal, John McCain.

Weathering the storm

Obama may have weathered the storm. But it's not yet clear that America has.

At least the people are right about who can better handle the economy, and that's a glimmer of hope in a dim and cloudy time.

Ducks come home to roost

Obama nails McCain:

"If my opponent had his way, the millions of Floridians who rely on it would've had their Social Security tied up in the stock market this week. Millions would've watched as the market tumbled and their nest egg disappeared before their eyes," he said.

"I know Sen. McCain is talking about a 'casino culture' on Wall Street -- but the fact is, he's the one who wants to gamble with your life savings and that is not going to happen when I'm president. When I'm president, we're not going to gamble with Social Security."

Please, Barack, don't let him get up off the canvas.

Shut up and go away

No, not you Hill. Your husband.

I'm not one of the majority of Democrats who want Hillary as VP. I have to admit my opposition is not reasoned; it's instinctive (what we call it when we choose by gut). I'm ready for someone new. I'm tired of Bill and his perpetual media circus (even though it's not all his fault).

Jennifer Granholm would be perfect. Would Canada cede her birthplace, Vancouver, to allow it? They'd have to do it retroactively.

Nah, still not Constitutional, though I'm sure the Republicans would consider it. After all, they ran two Texans in the last two elections, despite the Electoral College rules about that.

Polls close at 8:00

Pennsylvania predictions? I got nuthin', at least not about the results. Bill Schneider has predictions, one for each of three scenarios. Covers all the bases.

On process, though, there are some sure things:

• Analysts will make statements in serious tones, but their claims will either be blindingly obvious or partisan cant that they pretend they're hiding.
• Both camps will play expectations games. The only outcomes that can't be spun are over 60% for Hillary or a win by Obama.
• The sanest way to get the results will be with the sound off on your TV.

Please, god, can we have something definitive? Another prayer that will probably remain unanswered, but at least the answer on this side is not John McCain.

New Hampshire's independence

If New Hampshire voters are so independent and make their minds up for themselves, why is it that Iowa has so dramatically reordered the "nation's first primary"?

Just like the rest of us, NH voters listen to the pundits (mistake!) and absorb the news coverage, and a good fraction of them look for a bandwagon to hop onto, whether they would admit it or not.