Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Plus 124 with 1000 to go

My personal count of Minnesota Senate challenges puts Al Franken a hundred and twenty-four votes ahead of Norm Coleman, with an even thousand challenged ballots yet to review. Franken has gained 316 votes by my count since he was behind by 192 after the initial phase of the recount finished.

Based on the past 5742 ballots I've reviewed and even accounting for some bias at the margins since I want Franken to win, I don't think there's any way Coleman can overcome this deficit. He's already in court arguing via Bush v. Gore to keep wrongly excluded absentee ballots from being counted, so they can't help him. That would be a miracle anyway.

It looks as though Coleman's only path to re-election is through the courts. You'd think he was already hiring enough lawyers.

Update: Plus 134 with 500 to go. Coleman needs 317 to 183 to tie. Na ga happen.

Update: Not enough votes left for Coleman to win. Franken leads by 114 with 113 challenged ballots left. Of course, that's just on my scorecard.

Update: Franken at plus 123 with 23 ballots left. The Star Tribune web app won't go forward by any means, and it won't show a ballot. The link to the large PDF is buggered, and the bottom line numbers that report the assessments of other people don't add up to enough ballots. It's better to have the canvassing board working with real ballots!

I am assuming that the Star Tribune's web application and database backend are working somewhat properly, and that's a significant assumption since they seem to have retooled it more than once while it has been on-going. Still, to a first order approximation, it's probably accurate enough. But no, I can't explain the discrepancy between the official number of challenges and the number of challenged ballots visible on the site.

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