Those great employment numbers for September? Don't believe them.
No, there's no dark conspiracy to make President Obama look good. That's another zombie lie out of the feverish and fact-immune rationalization machines that wingnut brains are. It's just that the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers are too imprecise to justify celebration:
These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political. The volatility arises because the numbers are based on a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000. Every month there are wild swings that no one takes at face value.So:
- The main signal is there in the data, but it's very noisy due to inherent uncertainty in a small survey.
- There may be an underlying longitudinal change in seasonal behavior that seasonal adjustment models simply haven't yet caught up with.
Update: Paul Krugman believes this jobs report is a return to trend:
[T]here is real if modest improvement over the past year. Also, the September numbers looks not like an aberration but like a return to trend from what looks like noise in the data over the previous couple of months.