Counting noses on Mukasey

Will Michael Mukasey's nomination get out of Senate Judiciary? The forces of good need eleven votes. There are three Republicans whom one might consider possible:

• Arlen Specter (R-PA) - no way; he'll weasel again
• Charles Grassley (R-IA) - nope; one teensy imperfection won't change Grassley's mind
  
• Lindsey Graham (R-SC) - again, no way; his bipartisanship is limited to talk

So, it's up to the Dems, and as usual they're not likely to be up to it. Sure votes to reject:

• Joe Biden (D-DE)
  
• Dick Durbin (D-IL)
  
• Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) (good riddance Lincoln Chafee)
• my man Ted Kennedy (D-MA)

Likely votes:

• Pat Leahy (D-VT) - as chair, holding his fire
• Herb Kohl (D-WI)
• Russ Feingold (D-WI)
• Chuck Schumer (D-NY) - dithering while he changes his mind, but he will

Possible:

• Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) - don't know much about him, but he voted against cloture for Leslie Southwick

So, it comes down to Dianne Feinstein (D?-CA), based on her defense of Southwick and the bizarre requirement that only extraordinary causes should prevent a nominee from getting a vote. The Republicans would never agree to that, were they in the majority, and it's a token of stupidity that Democrats do.

I'm not optimistic that we'll run the table. The next line of defense is cloture. Based on the Southwick vote, 62-35, there's hope. Three Democrats voted for cloture and against the nomination (punks!):

• Carper (D-DE)
  
• Inouye (D-HI)
  
• Salazar (D-CO)

Other Dems might reject evil here, even if they let Southwick pass.

Look, this isn't even a close call. An AG who won't identify waterboarding as torture is worse than no AG at all.

Asked whether Bush was saying he would not nominate anyone if Mukasey were rejected, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said: "We don't believe it would come to that. No nominee could meet the test they've presented."

What she means is no nominee the Bushists would present could meet the test. Still, any honest nominee could easily meet this kindergarten-level test.

Update: I was proven wrong probably even before I finished this post. See my intemperate follow-up.