Triangulation

I'm hesitant, too, hesitant to call Bill Clinton a great man. In fact, I'd go one step further and say that he is not a great man. That's just not a status I give automatically to Presidents. I don't even think Clinton was a great President, just a good one.

Look at the men who have held that office during my lifetime, and there's really only one great man - Eisenhower, and I wasn't yet three when his Presidency ended. Besides that, Ike's greatness was made in the ETO, not in Washington. JFK might have been great, too, but we have to dream of Camelot instead of remembering it.

This means I superficially agree with Bill that Obama is not a great man. Not yet. I think he could be, though I think he more likely will be successful President without attaining greatness.

I think Obama is a good man, and I've seen with my own eyes and heard with my own ears that he's a smart man. I suspect that he has far more self-possession and self-control than Clinton, despite some similarities in their backgrounds (single mother, absent father, life on the margins of poverty), and maybe that's part of what galls Clinton. If Clinton had had what Obama has, maybe he could have been a great man.

McCain is not a great man, either. He was heroic thirty-five years ago, though I'm always wary when a pall of myth is cast over human frailty. After all, he did break under torture, too (as all eventually do). He is a human, not some demigod of resistance. For another, people who are willing to torture you are clearly willing to lie to you. There's no reason to credit the North Vietnamese offer of early release to McCain. More likely, they were trying a softer psy-op to divide him from his fellow POWs. He and his buddies would have seen this before, they would have been trained about it, and they would have been obliged to resist it.

But really, it's transparently obvious that Clinton would rather be passive-aggressive like this to try to get Hillary another shot in 2012 before she ages out of eligibility. He's back to triangulation, and it's pretty ugly.

Somewhere, Hillary Clinton is laughing

Cindy McCain thinks she has had it tough with the media. My heart bleeds for her.

Hillary is laughing at Cindy's lack of perspective, but her laugh is one of those mirthless, unsmiling laughs that we all do when something is painfully ridiculous, even though it's not funny in the least.

Slow learners

American voters are that special needs kid in elementary school who keeps making the same mistake over and over again. The kid is sweet but easily manipulated by the class bully to do what the bully wants done. The bully doesn't spend any time actually helping the special needs kid. He uses people.

Of course, the Republicans are the bully. But the special needs American electorate never learns that practically everything the Republican say is either an out and out lie or bullshit puffery.

This story alone should be enough to swing the election to any yellow dog. Imagine the controversy if Hillary Clinton had fibbed about being under fire in Bosnia. Or just remember. American swing voters are incapable of this. They would think that I know all I need to know about England; after all, I changed planes at Heathrow once.

It's not that foreign travel is essential. It's that they are puffing up refueling stops into visits and next door visits to a trip into Iraq.

The Obama campaign -- which has increasingly accused the McCain campaign of deliberately lying in ads and on the stump -- was quick to highlight that story, along with a news report that explored whether the McCain campaign has been sending out wildly inflated crowd estimates.

The McCain team has twice pointed to law enforcement as the source for those estimates -- but the same officials denied to Bloomberg News that they had provided the numbers cited by the Republican nominee's campaign.

"The McCain campaign said Gov. Palin opposed the bridge to nowhere, but now we know she supported it," said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor in a statement. "They said she didn't seek earmarks, but now we know she hired a lobbyist to get millions in pork for her town and her state. They said she visited Iraq, but today we learned that she only stopped at the border. Americans are starting to wonder, is there anything the McCain campaign isn't lying about?"

For that slow kid, here it is in a nutshell: You can't believe anything a Republican politician says.

Why not Michael Palin?

He's not:

• a woman
• young
• conservative

Nominating Sarah Palin for VP is a strategic move, just as Joe Biden was for Obama. McCain is going after PUMAs with a woman, though she's poles apart from Hillary in policy. I had expected a tactical move to put a blue state in play - Pawlenty, say.

In a rational world, McCain would have to give up his attacks on Obama's experience, since Palin is younger and has served as governor of Alaska for half the time that Obama has been in the U.S. Senate. In other words, she's much less ready to step into the Presidency than he is. But we don't live in a rational world.

An irrational world has its uses, though. Imagine an oblivious apolitical citizen stumbling upon them on the campaign trail.

"Hi, I'm Sarah Palin. I'm running for Vice President. I'd like you to meet--"

"Nice to meet you, young lady. Is this your dad?"

Is Palin enough of a frothing wingnut to galvanize the crazy GOP base? The CNN story doesn't mention any evangelical cred, and I've only known her name for a few days, so I can't tell. Her resume, as opposed to her sex, says that McCain has doubled down on drilling oil wells as his winning issue.

Update (8/31): For another Michael Palin reference (in the headline and waaay too contrived), see "Biff called Wanda".

I was a doubter, too

Obama's candidacy is not just a candidacy. Like Hillary's, it's a symbol. When the primary season started, I didn't think that either could win the Presidency. Now that Obama has won the nomination, I think it's possible, though by no means assured. From day to day, I have just about all the feelings expressed in this story.

Here's the thing: It is vital for the country to elect Obama, not as a symbol but as a daily leader. The nitty-gritty business of repairing the Bushist damage has to start as early as possible (and it still may be too late).

Obama will no doubt be imperfect. His youth will help sometimes and hurt at others. I suspect that his foreign policy work will be much more intelligent and flexible than McCain's juvenile bluster.

Four more months!

Amid all the lockstep, on-message Republican attempts to paint Hillary's endorsement of Obama as, what?, a lie, don't miss this:

Pennsylvania Sen. Robert Casey Jr. at one point feigned shock at the idea that the Republican Party was asking for four more years in the White House, promising the party of President Bush and McCain "not four more years, but four more months."

I'm delighted that Rudy Giuliani will deliver a keynote at the RNC. Let the Republicans showcase his unpopularity all they want.

There's also something funny about the two stories I've linked to. One of them is labelled "GOP reaction," yet the other is also filled with Republican spin. Ah, the GOP, so much bullshit that it didn't all fit into a single story!

Update: If you like this item, you might like an oldie from May 1.

When the only tool you have is your outrage

Everything looks pretty much like a snub.

People who lose have a hard time getting over it, especially when it was close, especially when Hillary's candidacy was such a potent symbol of advancement to women everywhere.

And Paul Begala whining that Obama should have consulted Bill Clinton? God, this guy is posing as an analyst. If Obama had consulted Bill, Begala would be incensed that he didn't take Bill's obviously wonderful advice.

Clintonistas, if you care about the country, get the chip off your shoulders.

Who's credible

The left blogosphere, especially Atrios, had it in for Mark Penn all along. Hillary Clinton's choice of him to lead her campaign confirmed their worst fears about her captivity to the Washington insider narrative and culture. Besides, they said, he was a vicious slimy swine and far too friendly to the Bushists and their friends. He has no convictions he wouldn't barter or sell, they said.

This story proves they were right. To the traditional media, these were strengths. Who got it right, again...

CNN notices

McCain bullshits on a daily basis. Finally, some reporters are noticing. Delicately though - McCain is "incorrect", not full of crap.

The weird thing is that McCain's comment was so inconsequential in the first place. Why would he even want to deny that he said the media failed to notice Hillary's compassion?

Nervous? It's what we do...

Hillary's most fervent supporters committed themselves to realizing a possibility that had seemed since 1920 laughably impossible. Shirley Chisholm had made a statement, but compared to masculine reality she had been performance art, serious but not lasting.

Now, Hillary was real. She was so close. Those who had come to believe that they love her and that she carried their personal hopes were also so close that they could read the joy like Braille in everything they touched.

That's a hard dream to defer, especially when the other side is celebrating the victory of a dream held in abeyance just as long. Jealousy is impossible to avoid.

Political decisions are emotional decisions, by and large. This one is no different. Some Clinton supporters will come around; some will not.

History suggests most will vote for a Democrat:

In the modern era, the pledge of mass defections by disappointed primary voters isn't rare -- but it rarely has a major influence on election results. The number of voters who identify with a given party may shift dramatically over time -- but among that self-selected group, loyalty tends to be remarkably high, with greater than nine in 10 usually supporting their party's presidential nominee, according to exit polling over the past few presidential cycles.

Eventually, the hot emotion of losing this dream until the next time will subside, and most of Hillary's supporters will make a decision between Obama and McCain. And there is just not much in McCain to inspire their belief or their joy.

Shut up and go away

No, not you Hill. Your husband.

I'm not one of the majority of Democrats who want Hillary as VP. I have to admit my opposition is not reasoned; it's instinctive (what we call it when we choose by gut). I'm ready for someone new. I'm tired of Bill and his perpetual media circus (even though it's not all his fault).

Jennifer Granholm would be perfect. Would Canada cede her birthplace, Vancouver, to allow it? They'd have to do it retroactively.

Nah, still not Constitutional, though I'm sure the Republicans would consider it. After all, they ran two Texans in the last two elections, despite the Electoral College rules about that.

Managing a legitimate result

For all the pundits, bloggers, and politicians who called on Hillary to quit, for all the tiresomeness of the endless primaries and their shallow coverage in the media, and for all the ridiculous complications of the Democrats' baroque procedure for selecting a nominee, I've come around to equanimity about Hillary's continuing in the race. It's best to see this process, however imperfect, to its end.

Think of the alternatives:

• The superdelegates short-circuit the process and king-make - either way.
• Either candidate drops out before actually being beaten.

Of course, Florida and Michigan bollixed up what would have otherwise been a clear procedural picture, and the DNC had to improvise. What they did was showcase an open process where everyone had a say. I'm sure there was some choreography behind the scenes, but they made a solomonic decision that didn't smack of one side cheating the other.

Wednesday, we Democrats will find ourselves here: The voters will have finished their say. The delegates they have already chosen are narrowly for Obama. The superdelegates have held back (enough!) from tipping the contest. They have let the voters choose so that the final outcome is legitimate. Based on Howard Dean's, Nancy Pelosi's, and Harry Reid's public statements, I believe that some Democrats in Congress decided to wait so that their votes would ratify the decision of the voters and not overturn it. Quite a restrained decision to be made in a smoke-filled room!

There's now a context in which to unite. That's still not guaranteed to happen. Whether it actually does hinges on Hillary's generosity and that of her core supporters. But to come out of the primary season in early June with a narrow but legitimate victory by one candidate is about all we could hope for.

Of course, all bets are off if Harold Ickes and Hillary take their beef to the floor of the convention.

Recount

I haven't watched the HBO docudrama about Florida in 2000. It would provoke too many painful memories. Maybe someday when I'm feeling too good and need a downer...

One thing I have to say for Hillary Clinton: If Al Gore had shown her tenacity in 2000, America would be a lot different today. Hillary is counting up the popular votes to achieve the desired outcome, but the vote itself is a total muddle. How do you count Michigan? How do you count caucuses? She is of course counting in the most advantageous way possible.

The problem with applying that lesson to 2008 is that Harold Ickes's threat of a floor fight is an extortionate threat to throw the election to McCain. It puts personal ambition ahead of party and country by risking four more years for the disastrous Bushist Republicans.

Don't get me wrong. All of these candidates compromise for their ambition. McCain kissed so much Bushist and fundie ass over eight years that he learned to like it. Obama cut ties to his church to try to stop the bleeding rather than help his congregation. Hill's just one of the bunch.

Still, the one outcome worse than a Pyrrhic victory is a Pyrrhic loss.

Chaos or conscience

Always fun to scoop CNN, which today posts the membership of the DNC Credentials Committee. Though the exact membership has changed a little over the intervening three months, possibly as a result of rearrangement of committee powers, I had this story nearly three months ago.

The composition of the panel still favors Hillary. Of thirty members, 12 are committed to her and only 8 to Obama. One of Obama's is from Florida.

Will they vote to win or vote for principal?

El Presidente Cerveza

Hillary hoists El Presidente beer while campaigning in Puerto Rico. I've had it; it's a step down from Budweiser. Of course, the name is the attraction, not the flavor.

Funny thing though - it's brewed in the Dominican Republic. Are they having an election, too?

Heavily cropped AP photo used under Fair Use. Click image to see full photo.

Suspicious minds

Click image for full and hilarious John Branch/San Antonio Express News cartoon.

We all remember

The rhetoric of American political campaigns, both from the candidates and the media, pretends to be tough and incisive. But it only dekes toward issues before ducking into hysteria. It exaggerates every utterance in whatever way it might be most negatively construed. My blog-buddy Winston Smith at Philosoraptor aptly calls this practice radically uncharitable interpretation.

Obama says it's worth talking to Iran, and blood and guts McCain fakes outrage, pretending that Obama said he'd happily take one of Iran's future nukes up the butt if that would start negotiations. If Americans at large had their bullshit detectors turned on, they would see this for what it is and chalk up the bullshit against its purveyor. Instead, we appear to prefer being lied to. And McCain locks himself into policy that has no alternative to violence.

Yesterday, Hillary made her now-infamous remark about RFK's assassination. People with an ax to grind or conventional wisdom to sell leapt to insinuate that she meant in her heart of hearts that, hey, she could still get lucky the way Hubert Humphrey did in 1968 if only James Earl Lee Harvey Sirhan would just do her a favor.

I think she was trying only to paint as precedented her time frame for accepting loss of the nomination. "We all remember ...," she started. She was using Bobby Kennedy's death as a memory aid, as a teacher or any speaker might find a touchstone. Her error was to use such a large fact to make such a prosaic argument. The fact's horror overwhelmed the mnemonic.

Mere mention of assassination does provoke our fears, mine anyway. Obama could be the sort of transformational figure that JFK, MLK, and RFK threatened to be before each in turn was gunned down. What would the 1960s have achieved had all three survived the decade?

There are thousands of Confederate throwbacks in this country who might take up arms against a renewal of that transformation, arms that they already own. James Earl Ray, Byron De La Beckwith, and the Philadelphia, Miss., KKK of 1964 are gone, but their hate-filled racist inheritors are still here. They have not failed to notice that Obama is a black man with a real chance to be President.

There are also thousands more Mark Chapmans, Arthur Bremers, and John Hinckleys - crippled little narcissists who kill for attention, who might again snatch chaos and defeat from the jaws of victory.

We all remember. Don't we?

The phone rings at 3 p.m.

Only a wee small problem with the Constitution.

Click image for full Bill Schorr cartoon.

Hillary hits a homer

On McCain's 2013 exit from Iraq:

"It sounded a lot like 'Mission Accomplished,' only postponed into 2013," said Clinton, referring to President George Bush's declaration less than two months after the Iraq invasion that major combat was over. "From my perspective, it's just more of the same. It's a continuation of the Bush policies that have been failures."

Eligible bachelorette

In 2016, after (please god) eight years of President Obama, Chelsea Clinton will be 36 years old and eligible to run for President. Just thought I'd throw that out there to give Hillary something to get behind.

Public domain image from Wikimedia Commons, released by Kyle Cassidy.